Matt Bai has an interesting piece in NYT discussing independent voters' attitudes in the 2010 election. I think it dovetails nicely with a diary by TrueBlueMajority. Both seem to point to something that has been emerging the last day or two: that no one in the media or the pundits or the political parties have a clear idea of what is going on with the electorate.
Fox, pollsters, pundits and the GOP have measured the drapes: another GOP tsunami is all but guaranteed. However, as some have pointed out, recent movements in favor of the Democrats by as much as 7 points, that the story of 2010 midterms is not writ in stone. Indeed, some may be tempted to invoke the insurgent Tea Party as the cause of perhaps some voters backing away from the anger fueled, corporate financed 'movement'. Upon reading Bai's article, I believe it is clear that the American voter or at least independents, are more nuanced than they are given credit for. The money quotes (IMHO)
The dominant theme of the discussion, in which jobs and taxes came up only in passing, seemed to be the larger breakdown of civil society — the disappearance of common courtesy, the relentless stream of data from digital devices, the proliferation of lawsuits and the insidious influence of media on their children.
These voters did not hate politicians. They simply saw both parties, along with the news media and big business, as symptoms of the larger societal ailment. And this underlying perception, that politicians in Washington conduct themselves just as childishly and with the same lack of accountability as the students throwing chicken casserole in the lunchroom, may well be the principal emotion behind the electorate’s propensity to vote out whoever holds power.
(my emphasis)
In short,the great mushy middle is seeking a way to make things work again: they are looking for competence. They can't take the posturing, the willful obstruction, the glacial pace of change in the face of real and compiling challenges.
The chattering class is clueless about this issue as they hone in on every gaffe or misstep. As Jon Stewart pointed out, most people don't pay attention to such minutiae because they have stuff to do. In the same vein, politicians such as Sarah Palin, Christine ODonnell et. al., bank on voter inattentiveness and believe that as long as they posture ('I'm just like you'), they will be forgiven any sin, secret or small.
Americans still believe that Bush (ergo GOP) was responsible for the economic mess. They may not like the way Obama has handled the economy, but they seem to know that he is working hard to find answers. In this respect, perhaps, the GOP has overplayed its hand. By being insufficiently contrite for their profligate ways and unable to muster a reasonable way forward, the GOP has bet the house (House?) on angry and crazy. If these independent voters are representative, that's a losing strategy.